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METAL LAB

US drafts letter telling allies to pick a side in US-China AI rivalry

State Department draft reportedly warns "to be part of everything is to be part of nothing" — countries in China's initiative would be shut out of Pax Silica

중국과 미국을 상징하는 건물이 케이블로 연결된 콜라주

이미지: METAL LAB 생성

Summary

  • The US State Department has reportedly drafted a letter urging allied nations to choose between the US and Chinese AI camps.
  • Countries that join China's AI initiative would reportedly be excluded from Pax Silica, the US-led coalition.
  • Kazakhstan has been identified as the only country currently listed as a member of both camps.
발신처
미국 국무부 서한 초안 (로이터 검토 확인)
핵심 문구
"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing."
미국 주도 연합
Pax Silica, 작년(2025년) 출범
Pax Silica 참여 규모
약 24개국 + EU
중국 주도 기구
세계인공지능협력기구(WAICO), 2026년 7월 시진핑 국가주석 발표
이중 가입국
카자흐스탄 (핵심광물 보유국)
중국 측 반응
주미 중국대사관, 세계 AI 발전 속도 늦출 뿐이라고 반박

A draft letter from the US State Department is putting pressure on allied nations that have been trying to balance ties with both Washington and Beijing. According to a Reuters report carried by CNBC, the draft calls on allies to choose a side in the US-China AI rivalry.

The document reportedly includes the line, "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing." It's effectively a warning: any country that joins a China-led AI initiative would be excluded from Pax Silica, the coalition led by the United States.

Pax Silica, a supply-chain alliance launched last year

Pax Silica is a coalition the US launched last year to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals. Roughly 24 countries and the EU are said to have joined so far. The alliance's goal is to build out chip and mineral procurement systems centered on AI models from US companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.

China counters with the World AI Cooperation Organization

In July, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) in response. The body positions China's open-weight AI models as an alternative to American systems like OpenAI's and Anthropic's. China's embassy in Washington pushed back against the US plan, arguing it would only slow the pace of global AI development without benefiting anyone.

CategoryUS-ledChina-led
NamePax SilicaWorld AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO)
Launched2025 (last year)July 2026
Core focusAI models, semiconductors, critical mineral supply chainsSpread of open-weight AI models
Membership~24 countries + EU29 founding members (including Kazakhstan)

Kazakhstan: the one country in both camps

So far, Kazakhstan is the only country confirmed to belong to both the US-led coalition and the China-led organization. Kazakhstan holds large reserves of critical minerals essential to semiconductor and AI supply chains, so if this letter is actually sent, it could become a real test case for which side the country ultimately chooses.

Editor's take

This draft letter is a sign that the AI power struggle has moved beyond comparing model performance and into national-level bloc formation. As we covered last month, even Europe — despite all its talk of AI sovereignty — has largely stayed at the level of running American models on domestic servers. Now the US is drawing a harder line: even that kind of hosting arrangement won't be enough. You have to pick a side.

Supply-chain alliances have traditionally targeted physical resources like chips and rare earths. What's different here is that this letter extends that framework to AI models themselves. Where bloc politics used to show up as chip export controls, it's now expanding to include which country's open-weight models you use as a marker of national alignment.

For companies and governments alike, this isn't an abstract issue. Any organization currently weighing OpenAI or Anthropic models against Chinese open-weight alternatives may soon find that which supply-chain bloc a model belongs to matters just as much as its technical performance when it comes to procurement strategy. It would be wise to factor this dynamic in early, especially when negotiating cloud contracts or deciding where to locate data centers.

In the coming weeks, the key things to watch will be whether this letter actually gets sent, and how countries straddling both camps — like Kazakhstan — end up choosing. Pressure is also likely to grow on countries already part of Pax Silica to keep their distance from China's initiative.

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