이미지: The Decoder
Summary
- Pangram's tracking of AI text detection shows Gemini's share dropping from 12% to 1.9%
- Over the same period, OpenAI held steady in the 50%+ range while Anthropic rose from 4.3% to 14.9%
- OpenRouter and Similarweb data confirm the same downward trend, which analysts note coincides with personnel changes inside DeepMind
- 팽그램 집계 제미나이 점유율
- 12%→1.9%(2026년 7월)
- 오픈AI 점유율
- 집계 시작 이후 매달 50% 이상 유지
- 앤스로픽 점유율
- 4.3%→14.9%로 상승, 기술·과학 분야 강세
- 구글 웹 점유율(시밀러웹)
- 27%→26.8%(1년 전 9.4%)
- 구글 제미나이 앱 월간 이용자
- 구글 자체 발표 10억명
- 딥마인드 리더십 변화
- 데미스 하사비스 등 고위 인사 이탈로 알려짐
From 12% to 1.9%, a Five-Month Collapse
In model-share rankings compiled by AI text-detection platform Pangram based on submitted writing, Google's Gemini once held a 12% share but had fallen to just 1.9% as of July 2026. Pangram described the figure as a "collapse." Over the same period, OpenAI maintained a share above 50% every month since tracking began, while Anthropic more than tripled its share from 4.3% to 14.9%. Pangram noted that Anthropic's growth was especially pronounced in technical and scientific writing.
Three Data Sets, One Picture
This isn't just a Pangram story. OpenRouter, which tracks API traffic across AI models, showed the same downward trend. At web-traffic analytics firm Similarweb, Google's website share slipped slightly from 27% to 26.8% last month. That said, the figure remains sharply higher than the 9.4% recorded a year earlier. Still, three different measurement methods point to the same conclusion: fewer people are turning to Gemini.
| Data Source | Measurement Method | Observed Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Pangram | Model detection on submitted text | Gemini fell from 12% to 1.9% (July) |
| OpenRouter | API traffic aggregation | Confirms the same Gemini decline |
| Similarweb | Website visit share | Google fell from 27% to 26.8% (vs. 9.4% a year ago) |
Google has said the Gemini app has around 1 billion monthly users. However, critics point out that monthly active users (MAU) is a loose metric that counts anyone who has opened the app even once, making it an unreliable signal of actual usage intensity.
Blind Spots Behind the Numbers
None of the three data sets is complete. Pangram mostly measures writing tasks, an area where Gemini already trailed ChatGPT and Claude to begin with. OpenRouter is a platform where traffic skews toward open-weight models, making it a poor proxy for the commercial model market as a whole. Similarweb doesn't track mobile app usage, meaning users who access Gemini through its app are missing from the count. Even so, the fact that all three data sets point in the same direction is the core takeaway of this report.
| Provider | Pangram Share (July) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 50%+ | Steady |
| Anthropic | 14.9% | Up from 4.3% |
| Google Gemini | 1.9% | Down from 12% |
What's Happening Inside DeepMind
Some analysts suggest this decline may not be unrelated to recent personnel changes inside Google DeepMind. Several senior figures, reportedly including Demis Hassabis's circle, are said to have departed the organization. Earlier Reuters reporting also indicated that Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been pushing internally within DeepMind to allocate more resources toward developing "self-improving AI." Whether this share decline is connected to that internal tension remains to be seen.
So What Does This Mean
This data doesn't necessarily signal failure for Google's AI business. On July 30, Google expanded Gemini Spark to over 160 countries including South Korea, pushing a 24-hour agent integrated with Gmail, Docs, and Slides, and is also testing a new chat-to-task toggle and a marketing-campaign-generating agent within Gemini Enterprise. Still, it's hard to dismiss the fact that three unrelated metrics all arrived at the same answer to the question of which model everyday users choose when generating text. As OpenAI and Anthropic increasingly split the market between them, whether Google can reverse this trend with its next model generation remains the key question to watch.
